doi.org/10.52340/eab.2025.17.04.10

The article examines the key features of international migration regulation in the Republic of Azerbaijan. The research methodology is grounded in comparative analytical approaches. The significance of the study lies in identifying the principal advantages that international migration offers to the country. In this context, the research explores both the theoretical and methodological foundations of migration regulation, as well as the economic development experiences of various states. Particular attention is given to the management and state regulation of international migration processes in Azerbaijan.
To evaluate the influence of macroeconomic factors on migration, the study employs statistical analysis, generalization techniques, and regression and econometric methods. The current dynamics of international migration in Azerbaijan are analyzed, synthesized, and assessed, leading to important findings.

Keywords: International population migration, emigration, highly qualified personnel, immigration, brain drain, unemployed, government regulation.
JEL Codes: F22, J61, O15, R23, J68

Introduction

Demographic indicators such as birth rate, mortality rate, natural population growth, and international migration play a decisive role in shaping the composition and future development of populations within states and their individual regions. The outcomes of these influences may be either positive or negative. Therefore, it is essential to examine the impact of migration processes – particularly international migration – on the formation and ongoing development of a country’s population and its labor resource potential (Aghayarova, A.A., 2023).
The term "migration" is derived from the Latin word "migratio," which means movement. In its broadest sense, migration refers to the process of population movement across territories and regions, resulting in a change of residence.
Population migration has a long and ancient history, dating back to the first major division of labor in human society – the separation of livestock farming from agriculture. Moreover, the scale of migration at various stages of historical development, as well as its intensity, forms, and outcomes, have varied greatly. Nevertheless, a detailed study of migration processes in our country, as well as in other post-Soviet republics, only began in the 1960 s and 1970 s. This delay was largely due to the prohibition on studying demographic processes, including migration, that was enforced starting in the 1930 s. The concept of "population migration" was obscured alongside terms like "unemployment" and other economic concepts, failing to find its place in economic literature. Even in the "Great Soviet Encyclopedia," published in the 1950s, this term was not mentioned. It was only from 1960 onwards that the concept of population migration began to appear in some socio-economic and demographic literature. In the territory of the former USSR, including Azerbaijan, discussions and analyses of population migration were conducted by many economists and geographers from the late 1960s to the early 1970 s. They sought to explain the nature, forms, intensity, directions, and consequences of migration (Muradov R.Sh., 2014).

LITERATURE REVIEW
Some scholars view migration as the settlement of populations across different territories, while others perceive it as an event or process of redistributing populations within a given area. Another group of researchers rightly distinguishes between population mobility and its overall location, framing this as geographical mobility (Muradov R.Sh., 2014).
According to the fourth group of authors, including Ukrainian scholar V.S. Khoreyev, the migration process is understood in a broad sense as the migratory movement of populations and migratory activities, while in a narrower sense, it refers to the movement of individuals from one place to another. From this perspective, O.V. Lormin also approached the migration process as a component of migratory movement and activities.
There are those who approach migration as distinct forms of population movement, including territorial, professional, field, and social mobility. V.D. Breyev replaced the concept of population mobility with migration (Muradov R. Sh. 2014). "Population migration should be understood as the process of moving from one locality to another." Migration can encompass at least three possible aspects of population movement across territories: first, all movements of populations across regions, regardless of their nature or objectives; second, movements in which individuals change their residence, workplace, or educational institution, either permanently or for a specified period; and third, movements that lead to the segregation of populations within territories. Overall, migration and the movement of people from one place to another are driven by specific forces, motivations, and factors. These can be categorized into three major groups based on the degree of change: those in constant motion, those that are relatively stable, and those that are variable. The latter group includes all actions of individuals that depend on their daily activities.
International migration is an inevitable phenomenon, akin to trade between nations, with political, social, economic, and other consequences that are unique to the contemporary era. As a result, each state seeks to mitigate its negative impacts and enhance positive effects through migration regulation. The implementation of such measures involves identifying the primary determinants of migration and managing these determinants either individually or systematically. Therefore, this study aims to address several important questions. The first question is: how is migration characterized as a process in economic literature from a theoretical perspective, and what distinguishes the various migration theories within that literature? The second question is: what determinants of international migration are identified in the economic literature, and are there significant differences among these determinants in migration theories? The third question focuses on the essence of migration regulation. Lastly, the fourth question examines how migration regulation impacts the determinants of migration.
These questions are widely debated in economic literature; however, there is no consensus or universally accepted answers to any of them. The primary reasons for this include not only the limited availability of statistical data on migration and its determinants but also the fact that theoretical models remain imperfect. On the other hand, a significant issue in migration research is the weak connection between government policy regarding migration processes and their determining factors, as well as theoretical and academic studies of the migration process as a whole or specific aspects of it. One of the main challenges is that the relationships between the economic aspects of migration and other dimensions (such as political, psychological, social, and demographic factors) are less explored in theoretical research, or there is a lack of appropriate methodology for such studies. Given this context, we will attempt to conduct a comparative analysis of the existing responses to these questions Aghayarova, A.A., (2021).
Migrants who travel from their country of origin to a destination country for various reasons encounter a new culture, customs, and different conditions in that country. In this context, it is essential for them to adapt to these conditions in order to live safely while performing their work.
The departure of migrants from their country of origin and their arrival in the destination country creates new opportunities and challenges for the populations, societies, and economies of both nations. Migration from one country to another impacts the size, age and gender structure, national composition, and various quantitative and qualitative indicators of the population and labor resources in these countries from multiple perspectives. The emigration of highly skilled personnel from the country of origin has a negative effect on that country’s economy.
The destination country strengthens its economy by acquiring such skilled personnel. Remittances sent back to the country of origin by migrants who possess various knowledge and skills and are engaged in employment in the destination country positively impact the standard of living for the population in that country.
After Azerbaijan gained independence, the migration process in our country underwent significant changes in both directions, encompassing both emigration and immigration. In the years leading up to independence and during the initial five years (1990-1994) of our independence, the number of immigrants arriving in our country for permanent residence from abroad was 211,200 individuals. In contrast, the number of migrants leaving our republic for permanent residence abroad was 342,300, resulting in a net migration balance of minus 131,100 individuals. During the subsequent 13 years (1995-2007), the number of immigrants who came to our country for permanent residence totaled only 45,000 individuals, while the number of migrants leaving for permanent residence in other countries amounted to 101,200. This resulted in a negative migration balance of 56,200 individuals. On the other hand, during the following 14 years, covering the period from 2008 to 2022, the number of immigrants arriving in our country for permanent residence from abroad was 38,700 individuals. Meanwhile, the number of migrants leaving our country for permanent residence abroad totaled 17,700 individuals, resulting in a positive migration balance of 21,000 individuals.
In the lead-up to our independence and during its early days, the significant increase in the outflow of migrants from our republic to foreign countries and the decrease in the number of immigrants to our country were primarily driven by political, national, and ethnic factors. In the following years, the increase in the number of immigrants from abroad to our republic, along with a decrease in the number of migrants leaving our country for permanent residence abroad, contributed to a reduction in overall migration outflow and a positive migration balance in our country after 2008. As a result of the return to power of the great leader Heydar Aliyev on June 15, 1993, and at the insistence of our people, a ceasefire between Azerbaijan and Armenia was established for the first time, officially declared on May 12, 1994. This period also saw the signing of the "Contract of the Century" on September 20 of the same year, the establishment of political stability in our country since 1995, and the restoration of economic ties with foreign countries, leading to dynamic economic growth starting in 1996.In recent years, changes in the number of immigrants arriving in our country and the number of migrants leaving have not been significantly affected by the closure of drought-stricken areas in our country due to COVID-19.
Over the past ten years, the economic development of Azerbaijan has led to an increase in the influx of migrants into the country. Unlike the 1990s, the current migration process is characterized by a minimal presence of political and ethnic motives. Although there are ethnic Azerbaijanis among the migrants arriving in the country, economic motives predominate. The presence of ethnic Azerbaijanis among the immigrants does not justify the notion of ethnic identity in migration processes, as the vast majority of these migrants are individuals who have integrated into the societies of other countries, and their return to Azerbaijan is largely driven by economic factors. The complex economic situation in these countries following the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly after Russia\\'s aggression against Ukraine, along with the threat of mobilization, has increased migration to Azerbaijan, attracting not only Azerbaijanis but also individuals from other ethnic groups. According to the State Migration Service of the Republic of Azerbaijan, the number of migrants arriving in Azerbaijan at the beginning of 2021 approached 50,000 individuals.
The main reasons for migration in Azerbaijan are not significantly different from those in other countries. However, at any given time, it is necessary to identify more critical reasons that are specific to each country. Among the reasons for emigration from Azerbaijan in the 1990 s, it is essential to mention political instability and the sharp deterioration of living conditions due to Armenia\\'s aggression against Azerbaijan. However, since 1994, political stability and continuous economic development in the country, along with the prevention of ethnic and religious conflicts in society and the promotion of broad tolerance and respect for cultural diversity, have mitigated the factors that might drive people to migrate.
The establishment of an adequate legal framework for migration management in Azerbaijan, the transparency of entry procedures for labor migrants, and the implementation of a "one-stop shop" system also have a notable effect. However, the negative migration balance in recent years—where emigration exceeds immigration – suggests that such a downward trend cannot be addressed solely through direct government intervention. Direct involvement in immigration is viewed as a restriction on the movement of people and contradicts human rights principles. In particular, attempts at administrative regulation of such movements can often lead to negative consequences. As a progressive country entering the process of globalization and embarking on a path of democratic development, Azerbaijan respects the rights of every citizen who chooses the path of emigration. No citizen of Azerbaijan can emigrate to other countries unless they have committed a crime or have any obligations to their home country. Naturally, compliance with the migration regulations of the destination country is required during this time.

DISCUSSION
A comparison of numerous studies focused on migration regimes in Azerbaijan suggests that the migration regime in the country is considerably "more lenient" compared to that of developed nations. Citizens from many countries around the world do not even require a visa to enter Azerbaijan. On the other hand, obtaining a visa has become easier for citizens of certain countries. Citizens from most former Soviet republics can stay in Azerbaijan visa-free for up to 90 days. As mentioned in the previous paragraph, there are also streamlined procedures for obtaining work permits for labor migrants. However, despite this, the negative migration balance provides some researchers with grounds to distinguish between the primary and secondary reasons for migration in our country. For instance, Allahveranov and Guseynov, [2013], Nasibov, [2014], Wistrand, [2017], Yuksel, and others, [2018], including Çudinovski and Denisenko, [2020], have explored these distinctions.
They identify social instability and the prolonged conflict with Armenia as the primary reasons for migration to Azerbaijan.
The study conducted by Wistrand, [2017] represents a 22-month ethnographic field research project in Azerbaijan, analyzing seasonal labor migration and its social consequences. The research by Yuksel [2018] and colleagues examined the key determinants of international migration in Azerbaijan, covering the period from 1995 to 2015. Through rigorous econometric evaluations, it was established that Azerbaijan\\'s international migration process is largely influenced by three significant factors.The first of these is the unemployment rate, which is quite natural. The lack of job opportunities leads to other socio-economic problems, including poverty, crime, and even poor health. Consequently, unemployment has a substantial impact on the level of emigration from the country. Another important reason for emigration from Azerbaijan identified by researchers is the low standard of living.
Çudinovski and Denisenko, [2020] note that in the early years following the Soviet regime, there were no significant differences between the processes of temporary labor migration and permanent migration. At that time, it was also challenging to distinguish between the legal and illegal employment of immigrants in the former Soviet republics. However, in the subsequent years, state governance in these republics began to develop in accordance with the requirements of the new system. Government intervention in the economy at various levels also impacted migration processes. Direct regulation of migration processes in Azerbaijan is carried out through relevant laws, decrees, and other normative legal acts. Over the past 30 years, more than 20 laws have been adopted to govern migration processes. The experience of various countries, particularly developed nations, demonstrates that migration regulation significantly influences migration flows. Let us momentarily consider a scenario in which there are no laws regulating migration in the United States or any other developed country. In this case, the flow of migration to these countries would sharply increase, altering their stability and prosperity. However, the impact of migration legislation on developing countries is not as pronounced. Specifically, the low immigration flows into developing countries diminish the effects of migration regulation in those contexts. Nevertheless, given the significant outflow of emigration from such countries, which is often not directly regulated by laws, the question of indirect regulation of this process becomes relevant. This is because emigration leads to a "brain drain" from developing countries, negatively impacting their economies.
The continuous increase in emigration from Azerbaijan to various countries, including developed nations, coupled with the lack of legislative regulation of this process, indicates the existence of more significant factors influencing migration and underscores the importance of implementing migration regulation through these factors. Specifically, for each country, the loss of highly skilled professionals translates to a loss of human capital, which is reflected in GDP levels. On the other hand, the overwhelming majority of the emigrating population is of working age, as noted in previous paragraphs.
If we approach the migration process as the voluntary movement of individuals from one country to another for temporary or permanent residence, the primary motivation in this process is safety and well-being. People may migrate under various economic circumstances. There are groups of individuals who do not even possess the minimal financial means for migration. Therefore, migration entails certain costs. For some groups, there is little incentive to migrate, as they have the option to live as long as they wish in the countries of their choice. Naturally, such individuals are fewer in number compared to the former group. Between these two groups exists a third, or middle group, capable of migrating to certain countries within their financial means. An important motivation for this group is the potential income in the destination country, chosen by the prospective migrant, which is higher than in their country of origin. However, this motivation is effective only if the potential migrant possesses the necessary level of knowledge and skills. Otherwise, the mere existence of income disparities cannot serve as a sufficient incentive for migration.
In the economic literature, various factors are considered as the primary reasons for migration. For instance, Rusakov. S et al., [ 2019]. highlight the role of economic and social factors in their studies. Lozej.M., [2018] as mentioned above, is based on the broader participation of countries with medium and low-income levels in migration processes, stemming from the attractiveness of the standard of living in developed countries for individuals residing in countries with medium and low-income levels. Tanrikulu, F et al., [2020] gives priority to technological development and, in connection with it, to the development of social factors. Combes, P et al., [2020]. base the development of urbanization and urban culture on migration processes. Undoubtedly, labor migration, particularly the migration of highly skilled professionals, has a positive impact on the economy of the destination country and a negative effect on the economy of the country of origin, as it is associated with a higher volume of human capital. The situation is somewhat different for the migration of low-skilled workers. Thus, remittances sent by low-skilled workers to their home countries during labor migration can have a positive effect on the economy and social well-being of the country of origin, while exerting certain negative impacts on the destination country. These issues are also widely studied in the economic literature. For example, Murakami et al., [2021] argue that remittances sent by migrants to their families increase aggregate demand through heightened consumer spending in the country of origin. On the other hand, a labor migrant from a developing country to a developed country may acquire new skills while in the latter. This experience can enable them to work as more skilled professionals upon their return home. Such accumulation of experience represents an increase in human capital in the destination country and upon their return to the country of origin. It indirectly plays an important role in integrating the society of the developing country into the globalization process and in assimilating international values in the country of origin. However, it is worth reiterating that the outflow of highly skilled professionals from such countries to more developed nations has a negative impact on the economic development of the country of origin.
The aforementioned issues also pertain to Azerbaijan as a developing country with a middle-income level and the migration processes within it. Emigration from Azerbaijan primarily exhibits two distinct characteristics and directions. These two differences in emigration are related to the level of knowledge and skills of the emigrants. Thus, Azerbaijan experiences both an outflow of highly skilled professionals and an outflow of low-skilled workers. On the other hand, among the immigrants arriving in Azerbaijan, there are not only highly skilled professionals but also low-skilled labor migrants Therefore, government regulation of migration should adapt based on the structure of migrants. Each country seeks to retain its highly skilled professionals while attracting high-skilled migrants. In other words, there is an international competition for highly skilled labor. The United States, European countries, and Japan implement special visa regimes to attract highly skilled professionals for immigration. Developing countries create conditions that allow such professionals to live and work under better economic and social circumstances within the country. Depending on the nature of emigration in Azerbaijan, its directions also vary. Thus, highly skilled emigrants tend to relocate to developed countries, particularly the United States and EU nations. In contrast, low-skilled labor migrants primarily consider Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkey, and Belarus as their destination countries. Relying on the experiences of other countries and conducting research, one could suggest that the first direction of emigration may have a negative impact on Azerbaijan\\'s economy, while the second direction could have a positive influence. Additionally, considering that the migrants arriving in the country possess two different natures, granting a "green light" for the immigration of highly skilled professionals and a "red light" for the arrival of low-skilled labor migrants should be one of the important measures for regulating migration in Azerbaijan, as it is in most countries. However, substantiating the implementation of such a policy requires serious quantitative assessment.

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

In general, the impact of state migration regulation measures on the country, as well as on the flow or volume of migrants from the country, is significant.

We can express this in the form of a regression equation.
Here, equation (1.1) expresses the relationship between Y_t – the migration indicator and X_t – the economic development indicator. For X_t, we can consider the volume of Gross Domestic Product (GDP_t), the annual change in GDP (∆GDP_t), or GDP per capita (GDPPC_t), and so on. Y_t can be defined as: a) the emigration flow of individuals with higher education (EMEF_t); b) the immigration flow of individuals with higher education (IMEF_t); c) the flow of other emigrating labor migrants (EMF_t); d) the number of other immigrating labor migrants (EMS_t). It is worth noting that the hypothesis H_0 β_j=0 is currently being examined.
In model (1), it is important to include other indicators that influence migration. For example, the unemployment rate in the country (UNEMP_t), the ratio of the average wage to the minimum wage (wage_t), the amount of funding allocated for science (R&D_t), healthcare expenditures in the country (HEXP_t), and education. We can construct an empirical model of the relationship between migration indicators and macroeconomic indicators in the multivariate regression equation (1), incorporating the indicators of government expenditure (EDU_t). It is worth noting that some researchers also add the level of globalization of both the sending and receiving countries as factors that affect migration. For example, Gulyaliev [2018] considers that one of the important factors influencing migration is the level of globalization of countries. Through empirical assessments, he demonstrates that the patterns of emigration and immigration in Azerbaijan differ from migration processes in other countries due to certain characteristics. While the GDP per capita, taking into account emigration flows, the level of GDP, and the share of wage workers in the total number of jobs are somewhat dependent on the globalization index, the dependence on the level of economic freedom is stronger.
Studies conducted across different countries show that economic and social factors have a dominant influence on migration processes, while other factors such as technology, physical capital, and labor force also significantly impact economic development. As mentioned earlier, the emigration of highly qualified personnel can negatively affect GDP, while their immigration can have a positive effect. In other words, economic development can influence migration, and migration can in turn impact economic development, creating a mutual causal relationship. Therefore, we can express the mutual (bidirectional) relationship between these indicators through equation (2):

Equation (2) essentially expresses the Granger causality relationship between Y_t, the migration indicator, and X_t, the indicators of economic development.
When making calculations, certain assumptions must be made. Thus, to estimate the number of highly educated emigrants or immigrants, we will assume that primarily highly educated or highly skilled personnel emigrate to developed countries. Migrants leaving for or arriving in other countries, including post-Soviet countries (excluding the Baltic states), will not be considered as having higher education. Of course, such assumptions lead to significant data distortion. However, initially, we must do this to distinguish "brain drain" from ordinary migration. We will consider the number of emigrants to the USA, the UK, Germany, Israel, the Baltic states, Poland, and Greece as those contributing to "brain drain." Emigrants to these countries should be proficient in English. Except for the Baltic states, knowledge of Russian is sufficient for emigration to other post-Soviet countries. Undoubtedly, among these migrants, there are many highly educated individuals. However, as mentioned earlier, we will consider such migrants as highly skilled, taking into account language proficiency and the complexity of emigration to developed countries and European nations.
In the calculations, instead of the unemployment rate, we will use the sum of the number of people not receiving wages and classified as self-employed, along with the number of unemployed individuals. This is done because a significant portion of labor migrants falls among the self-employed. Although these individuals engage in self-employment during certain seasons of the year due to having land plots or some property in rural areas, in most cases, they are compelled to migrate in search of work.

RESULTS

According to the models presented in Table 3, the emigration of highly qualified personnel from Azerbaijan significantly depends on only one of the mentioned indicators: the number of unemployed individuals in the country. The results indicate that as the number of unemployed people increases, so does the emigration of highly qualified professionals from the country. Conversely, an increase in the employed population leads to a rise in the number of incoming highly qualified immigrants. Additionally, three factors significantly influence the outflow of low-skilled labor migrants from the country: the number of unemployed, the amount of funding allocated for science, and the expenditures dedicated to education. As the number of unemployed individuals rises, the number of labor migrants leaving the country also increases. Notably, funding for science has a negative impact on labor migration, indicating an inverse relationship between science expenditures and labor migration. Furthermore, there is a positive correlation between education spending and labor migration. This finding suggests that enhancing education to a certain level, combined with a high unemployment rate, leads to an increase in the number of educated migrants departing the country. It\\'s important to develop education, but even more crucial is to implement necessary measures to integrate educated individuals into the country\\'s economy. The aforementioned indicators do not significantly influence the number of labor migrants from developing countries to Azerbaijan.