Analysis of Factors Affecting Production of Agro-food Industry Products in Azerbaijan

Yunus  Sadigov Musa oğlu

Journal number 4 ∘ Yunus Sadigov Musa oğlu ∘
Analysis of Factors Affecting Production of Agro-food Industry Products in Azerbaijan

doi.org/10.52340/eab.2025.17.04.06

The agricultural and agro-processing sector of Azerbaijan is of vital importance for the country\\'s food security and economic sustainability. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the factors affecting the production of agro-processing products. The main goal of the study is to understand the economic, technological and social factors that increase or limit the volume of production in this sector.
The development of the agro-processing sector is directly related to agriculture. If agricultural products are produced in a stable and high-quality manner, they will provide sufficient raw materials for agro-processing enterprises. As a result, the sector will develop more dynamically. Moreover, increased investment and the application of modern technologies are key drivers of productivity growth.
The article measures the impact of economic factors on the production of agro-processing products using the LS-regression model, and the results show that several economic indicators have a positive impact on the development of the agro-processing sector.
The author puts forward a number of strategic proposals for the further development of the agro-processing sector in Azerbaijan. These proposals can ensure the long-term development of the agro-processing sector and strengthen the food security of Azerbaijan.

Keywords: Agro-processing sector, agriculture, competition, efficiency, correlation analysis, LS-regression, Belsley test, resource, investment
JEL Codes: Q12, Q13, Q18, O13, C33,

Introduction
The agriculture and agro-processing sector is one of the main pillars of the economic stability and food security of every country. In modern economic conditions, the sustainable development of this sector is possible only with the effective management of the production chain, the application of scientific and technical innovations and the targeted policy of the state.
The production of agro-processing products in Azerbaijan has undergone changes in recent years under the influence of various economic and technological factors. Increasing the production capacity of enterprises operating in this sector, stabilizing the supply of raw materials and expanding the consumer market are currently one of the important issues.
The development of the agro-processing sector is not limited only to the volume of agricultural products. Factors such as investment opportunities, the level of production technologies, the state of infrastructure and market requirements also play an important role here. Strategic approaches are required to ensure the sustainability of local agro-processing enterprises against the backdrop of increasing competition in the global food market.
In this article, the main factors affecting the production of agro-processing products in Azerbaijan are analyzed using economic and statistical methods and possible solutions for the development of the sector are examined. The calculations were performed in the MatWorks MatLab 2021 and EvieWs-10 software packages.

Literature Review
Becoming a strong society and a strong state in accordance with modern criteria on an international scale is possible only in an environment of free competition and transparent management of an open economic system that is constantly undergoing positive changes, which largely depends on the level of development of entrepreneurship, business, and the competitive environment. In other words, as a result of the pace of economic development in the country, as well as the correct and transparent management of the economic system consisting of industry, agro-industrial complex and service sectors, high development of the country\\'s economy can be achieved. “The competitive advantage of the agricultural sector is determined not only by natural resources, but also by the efficiency of the workforce, the application of technologies and supporting infrastructure” [Warlina, Soegoto, Supatmi, Oktafiani & Jatnika, 2023, p. 53].
“The agro-processing industry is considered an optimal solution to ensure food security, increase the value and quality of products, and at the same time increase the competitiveness of agricultural products. This industry plays an important role in changing the structure of agricultural production, developing rural economies, and integrating agriculture into the global economy” [Linh Nguyen-Thi-Thuy et al. 2024]. The promotion of processed agricultural products within the industrial sector has a significant impact on the innovation of these products [Muangmee C. et al. 2024]
“Azerbaijan’s agricultural sector mainly consists of crop and livestock production. However, the agro-processing industry is underdeveloped and needs support in terms of investment and infrastructure” [Fakhri J. Hasanov and others 2022]
Azerbaijan faced political, social and economic crises immediately after gaining independence. These crises, which occurred in 1991-1996, had a serious negative impact on the country\\'s economy, including agriculture. In those years, the economy weakened, production decreased sharply, household incomes and living standards decreased, and purchasing power decreased, which led to a decrease in demand. In such a situation, the process of taking measures related to the deterioration of economic indicators in agriculture emerged as a necessity. “Each of the problems that negatively affect the development of the market and slow it down is characteristic of many countries that have experienced a period of transition economies. In general, the solution of such problems is not short-term, but is included in the group of problems that can be solved within a certain period of time” [V.Abbasov, F.Suleymanov 2021].
The agro-processing sector is the most important link in ensuring the state\\'s food security, which in turn is an integral part of national security and characterizes the country\\'s economic stability and political independence, as well as the state\\'s ability to ensure food security. “Increasing employment opportunities in the agricultural sector and improving infrastructure, in addition to preventing internal migration, also contributes to the development of agriculture” [Bagirov, Humbatov, Efendiyev, Mehdiyeva & Sultanova, 2022, p. 67]
In general, the agricultural sector is always more exposed to the influence of risk factors and, at the same time, is a key participant in the implementation of the country\\'s food security goals and programs. “The development of ecologically clean agriculture in Azerbaijan depends on improving the institutional base, providing state support, and raising awareness among producers and consumers” [Aliyev, Mammadova, Hamidova, Dunyamaliyeva & Hurshudov, 2022, p. 92].
“The level of labor productivity largely depends on the value of fixed capital per worker, which indicates the crucial role of investments in agriculture” [Onegina, Megits, Antoshchenkova & Boblovskyi, 2020, p. 12]. “Increasing labor productivity in Azerbaijan is the most urgent problem, which depends on the speed of expanded reproduction in agriculture and meeting the population\\'s demand for food products” [Sh. Guliyeva, Y. Sadigov, N. Guliyeva, L. Isayeva, Sh. Aliyeva 2021].
“The results obtained confirm the necessity and practicality of developing the agricultural industry in Azerbaijan at the modern stage based on an innovative scenario and taking into account the current level of development of the industry. At the same time, the main disruptive factor in developing an optimal innovative scenario for the development of the sector, as studies have shown, may be maintaining the quality of human capital and labor productivity at the same level” [Hajiyeva, N. G. 2021]. “Digital technologies and information-based innovations are playing an increasingly central role in the transformation of agri-food systems, including processing and value-added stages” [Fleming, A., Jakku, E., Fielke S., Taylor, B.M., Lacey, J., Terhorst, A., & Stitzlein, C. 2021]
One of the important points affecting the development of the agro-processing industry in the modern period is the existing integration relations between agricultural producers and processing industrial enterprises. “A unified approach is necessary to fully realize the transformation potential of agricultural processing” [M.M. Urugo et al. 2024].
“Integration relations are a process that reflects the deepening of productive forces and production relations and is interconnected with them, and at the same time is a factor that affects the final results of production” [Guliyev 2013].
Azerbaijan should become a member of the World Trade Organization, and this membership will be a very powerful impetus for the integration of the national economy into the global world and the liberalization of trade, the country\\'s economy in general, including the development of the agro-processing sector. At the same time, the creation of regional and sectoral clusters is one of the most important tools for the development of agriculture and agro-processing in the country. Therefore, there is a need to develop and implement state programs related to the development of clusters at the state level [Sadigov Y.M. abstract 2024].
In order to expand the competitive agricultural processing industry and increase production along the value chain, it is necessary to ensure easy access to relevant resources, including affordable financial resources, for producers, and to accelerate work to further improve market infrastructure and the agrarian business environment [Decree of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan 2021].

Methodology

This study employs a quantitative analytical framework to investigate the macroeconomic and structural factors influencing the production volume of agro-processing products in Azerbaijan. The approach integrates secondary statistical data with primary field observations to provide both numerical evidence and contextual insights.
The analysis draws upon two types of data. First, time-series data for the period 2008–2022 were collected from the official databases of the State Statistical Committee and the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Azerbaijan. These data provided the basis for macroeconomic trend analysis and model estimation.
Second, primary data were gathered through a structured survey conducted in 2023 among 34 sheep-farming enterprises located in the Ismayilli and Shamakhi districts. These regions were chosen due to their active role in wool production and the prevalence of unprocessed wool loss due to market inaccessibility. The survey addressed production levels, market linkages, and constraints faced by farmers in the post-harvest stage. Most respondents reported an inability to sell wool due to the absence of buyers and processing infrastructure, leading to waste and economic loss.
The dependent variable in the regression model is the overall value of processed agricultural output. Independent variables include selected macroeconomic indicators reflecting capital investment, production scale, infrastructural capacity, and household income in the agricultural sector. These were chosen based on theoretical relevance and data availability.
To address multicollinearity among variables, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied, and the resulting component was used in a log-log linear regression model. This allowed for dimensionality reduction while preserving explanatory power.
The model was estimated using EViews 10 and MATLAB 2021. A series of diagnostic tests were performed, including the Jarque–Bera test for normality, the Breusch–Godfrey LM test for autocorrelation, and the Breusch–Pagan–Godfrey test for heteroscedasticity. Structural stability was assessed using the Chow test and CUSUM plot, particularly in relation to the 2015 currency devaluation, which had significant implications for the agricultural sector.

Discussion

The growth of product production in the country\\'s agro-processing sector is conditioned by a number of key factors. These factors are related to economic, social and technological factors and serve the sustainable development and improvement of the efficiency of the sector. “Higher efficiency translates into greater business stability, reduced business risk and greater flexibility for making business decisions due to greater trust from shareholders and management” [R.Mukhopadhyay & A.Adelaja 2023].
As in all sectors of the economy, efficiency is one of the most important factors in the agro-processing sector. Ensuring high efficiency in this sector has a direct impact on increasing product production, reducing production costs and strengthening competitiveness.
In order to increase efficiency in the agro-processing sector in Azerbaijan, attention should be paid to the following main directions:
• Application of modern technologies
• Expansion and improvement of the raw material base
• Efficient use of resources
• Expansion of financial and investment opportunities
• Strengthening export potential
Efficiency is understood as obtaining maximum output with minimum resources (raw materials, labor, investment, etc.), in other words, producing the same product at lower cost. Back in 1911, the American engineer and businessman Harrington Emerson put forward the need for any economic activity to clearly define its goals as a basic idea in his book “12 Principles of Efficiency.” [Harrington Emerson 1911].
The efficiency of entities operating in the agro-processing sector can be assessed by several indicators. Based on these, the following indicators can be shown:
1. The volume of total products processed in the agro-processing sector;
2. The specific weight of the part of the total volume of products produced in agriculture that goes to processing;
3. The volume of total income in the agro-processing sector;
4. The share of the agro-processing sector in GDP
5. Total budget revenues from agro-processing enterprises;
6. Labor intensity in the agro-processing sector and the specific weight of those working here in the total employed population;
These indicators more fully reflect the current state of the agro-processing sector in the country. Processing of existing raw materials and products produced in the agricultural sector is one of the main functions of the agro-processing industry, and the processing rates of these products are considered one of the most important efficiency indicators of agro-processing enterprises.
Processing Rates of Agricultural Products in Azerbaijan
National economies in the global world are trying to process the raw materials and products they produce themselves and sell finished products, not raw materials, to other countries. This approach helps to increase economic value, generate more income for local producers, and strengthen the country\\'s competitiveness. Exporting raw materials is one of the main characteristics of underdeveloped economies.
If we look at the statistical indicators of the processing depths of agricultural products in Azerbaijan, we will not encounter a heartwarming picture.

As can be seen from Table 1, less than half of the local grain produced here is processed. However, this processing does not apply to flour production at all. The majority of grain produced in the country is consumed as livestock and poultry feed, as a food product without processing, etc. The grain that is processed is mainly processed for the production of mixed feed. Since local wheat does not meet the required standards, it is used very little for flour production. The existing flour mills in the country mainly process imported food wheat.
The amount of corn produced has almost doubled in the last 12 years. Therefore, despite the fact that the specific weight of the part going to processing has decreased by 25% during this period, its physical weight has actually increased. The unprocessed part is mainly used for livestock and poultry feed. The processed part is used for the production of food products, including the production of flour and groats, and the production of non-food products, that is, the production of mixed feed.
A small part of the potatoes produced in the country, namely 0.6-0.8%, has been processed since 2018. Potato processing is mainly related to the chip factory opened in Azerbaijan by the Gilan holding.
Positive dynamics are not observed in the specific weight of processing of fresh fruits and berries produced in the country. However, there is a change in terms of physical weight, as fruit production has increased by 365 thousand tons in the last twelve years, and the amount of fruits and berries that are adequately processed has also increased by 169 thousand tons during this period. Despite this increase, the part processed in the country compared to the volume of fruit production is only 16%, which is very low. This also indicates that the potential opportunities for increasing production volumes using local raw materials in the production of fruit juices and fruit preserves are very large. Nevertheless, in the last two years, the interest of fruit and berry processing enterprises in local products has increased. Thus, in 2022, they received 33% more fruit than the previous year, and 2.3 times more than in 2020.
There is a positive dynamic in the specific weight of the processed product in the production of nuts. The production of this product has increased by about 7 times in the last 12 years, and at the same time, the volume of the share given to processing has also increased significantly. Thus, if in 2010 only 1% of the produced product, i.e. approximately 700 tons, was given to processing, in 2020 this figure increased to 7%, i.e. 6 thousand tons. Hazelnut production constitutes the absolute majority in this product group. It should also be noted that the part of the nut production going to processing was 24%, i.e. 15 thousand tons in 2020. Over the past two years, this group of products delivered to processing enterprises has decreased by 2.5 times.
It should be noted that hazelnuts have a great export potential and are considered one of the main agricultural products that bring foreign exchange to the country. Hazelnut processing plants with modern technologies operate in the country, such as the Gabala hazelnut processing plant, the hazelnut processing plant belonging to “AZNUTS” LLC operating in Khachmaz, and the hazelnut processing plants belonging to “Agrarco” LLC in Zagatala. The products of these plants are exported to European countries, including Italy and Germany.
There has also been positive dynamics in the part of pomegranate production given to the processing industry in the last 12 years. During this period, pomegranate production increased by up to 14%, but the part of production given to processing has increased more than 2 times in physical weight. However, a decline has been observed in the part of this product production going to processing in the last two years. Thus, in 2022, 25-35% less product was processed compared to 2019 and 2020.
The increase in the part of pomegranate products going to processing is mainly due to the activities of the pomegranate factory in the Goychay region. In 2006, that factory was privatized, “AZNAR” CJSC was established, re-equipped with modern equipment and put into operation. Currently, this factory operates in the direction of completely waste-free processing. The factory produces pomegranate juice, pomegranate wine, pomegranate seed oil, pomegranate wine and pomegranate juice mixtures with various fruit juices, etc. [History of pomegranate. Aznar 2017].
In grape production, the volume of products sent for processing has decreased by 53% in the last 12 years. This figure has decreased more than 2 times compared to the previous year. However, during this period, grape production increased by 64%, and the volume of grape products adequately supplied to the processing industry has increased by 60% in physical weight. However, in 2022, the processed grape product decreased by 2.2 times compared to the previous year. Approximately 78% of the total grape production for that year was directed to consumption without processing. There are many potential opportunities for increasing grape processing and developing winemaking in the country.
The situation with the use of local raw materials for sugar production is unsatisfactory. As can be seen from the table, the use of local raw materials increased sharply in 2022 compared to 2010, reaching 39%, which is 7.8 times more than the previous year. In 2020, there was also a 15% indicator in the processing of local raw materials, which was mainly explained by the decrease in sugar processing. Thus, by 2020, over the past 10 years, the processing of sugar raw materials had decreased by 50%, and at the same time, sugar production had also decreased adequately. This figure decreased even more in 2021. However, in 2022, a sharp turnaround was made at the Imishli Sugar Plant, the raw material reserves for sugar production increased 14 times in one year, and the specific weight of local raw materials in the raw material reserves also increased. Our country has all the raw materials needed for sugar production, and unfortunately, this potential is not yet being used to the necessary level.

As can be seen from Table 2, very little of the meat products produced in the country are processed, mainly meat is consumed without direct processing. The growth dynamics of the share of the produced meat products in the processing industry is related to the growth dynamics of sausage production.
The share of dairy products going to processing has the highest indicator among almost all agricultural products. If in 2000 only 2% of the milk produced was directed to processing, this figure reached 89% after 22 years, in 2022.
Table 2 does not mention the wool product. According to the State Statistical Committee of Azerbaijan, wool production data is consistently reported in annual agricultural statistics. However, there is no corresponding data on wool processing, trade, or consumption, suggesting a systemic gap in the value chain and confirming that wool remains largely unprocessed or discarded.
In connection with the research, a survey was conducted with farmers engaged in sheep breeding in Ismayilli and Shamakhi regions. 100% of respondents reported that they were unable to sell the wool they produced due to the absence of buyers and processing infrastructure.
Approximately 16,000 tons of wool produced annually is not processed and goes to waste.
Due to the specifics of the reports of the State Statistical Committee of Azerbaijan, it is somewhat difficult to assess the efficiency of processing agricultural products. To solve this problem, we have resorted to such a methodology. Thus, we have compared the production of both agricultural products and the volumes of processed products in the country. From the volume of produced products, we have determined the part remaining in production, minus losses, and parts going directly to consumption, and have compared it with the total production of raw materials. Here, we have taken into account not all products produced in processing enterprises, but mainly the use of local raw materials.

Conclusion
The analysis of the presented data allows us to draw several conclusions.
1. The production volume of agro-processed products has increased significantly compared to the crisis years (1991-1996). Thus, sugar production was absent in the country, and after 2006, the production of this product began in connection with the commissioning of the Imishli sugar factory. At the same time, after 2000, the production of bread and bakery products has increased 2 times, pasta production 28 times, fruit and vegetable canned food production 7 times, fruit and vegetable juice production 30 times, vegetable oil production 7 times, mineral and carbonated water production 200 times, soft drinks production 6 times, salt production 18 times, sausage production 11 times, butter production 5 times, milk production with a fat content of 1-3% 6 times, and dairy products with a fat content of 6-29% 11 times. On the contrary, there are decreases in the production of other products of the agro-processing sector, for example, cotton processing, wine processing, tobacco processing, tea processing [Economic statistics. Agriculture, forestry and fisheries 2023].
2. During the crisis years, the volume of raw materials supplied for processing was smaller, and production consumption was higher.
3. The depth of processing for different products is also different. Such inequality is an indicator of unused resources and necessitates investment.
Summarizing all this, we can conclude that a fairly large area of agriculture in the country, including such areas as technical crops and meat production, has a very low level of processing, which can lead to large financial losses in the production-processing-market chain. It can also be concluded that there is a sufficiently capacious market for these products, there is little competition, and investing in these areas seems very realistic. From this point of view, investing in the processing sector in the country is very attractive.

The Main Factors Affecting the Production of Agro-Processing Products

The main factors affecting the production of agro-processing products are related to various economic, technological, social and environmental factors. Proper assessment and measurement of these factors helps to optimize production processes, increase efficiency and ensure sustainable development. At the same time, we can also determine the degrees of dependence using the method of measuring the influencing factors.
In order to determine the factors affecting the volume of product production in the agro-processing sector, an LS-regression model was built. The following explanatory variables - regressors of the model were taken:
X1 - The volume of investments in fixed capital in the agro-processing sector (in million manats),
X2 - The amount of added value created in the agro-processing sector (in million manats),
X3 - The volume of agricultural production (in million manats),
X4 - The volume of investments in agriculture (in million manats),
X5 - The volume of fixed assets in agriculture (in million manats),
X6 - The amount of cash income of the population (in million manats)
The regressors cover the years 2008-2022. The results of the correlation analysis of the explanatory variables of the model are given in Table 3

As can be seen from Table 3, there is a strong positive correlation between X1 and variables X2, X3, X5 and X6; very strong between variable X2 and X3 and X5, strong between X2 and X6; very strong between X3 and X5 and X6; very strong between X5 and X6.
The multicollinearity condition between input variables X1-X6 can be determined using the Belsley test in the MatLab 2021 package:

Source: Calculations performed in MathWorks MatLab 2021 packag
Table 4 shows that, although multicollinear variables are not detected when condIx=39.9982, when condIx=81.8389, the X3 variable is more multicollinear (0.9935), and the X5 variable is found to be multicollinear, although it is relatively small at 0.5527.
According to Belsley diagnostics, variables whose variance share in the row corresponding to the conditional index (condIdx) given in the second column is greater than 30 are considered multicollinear (Davudova 2019).

It is clear that in the case of observed collinearity between the input variables of the model, one cannot speak about the adequacy of the regression model constructed by the known method. As a way out of such cases, the method of principal components - PCA (Principal Component Analysis (eng.) - Principal component method is used. (Table 10.) Here, PCA was implemented in the EvieWs-10 package and the PC principal component was constructed based on the input variables X1, X2, X3, X4, X5 and X6 of the model:

A_4) Model stability conditions
Two tests were used here to check the stability of the model:
A_4_1) RAMSEY Reset Test
This test aims to check whether the functional form of the model is correctly selected. The null hypothesis of the test is as follows: “The functional form of the model is correct.” The results of the Ramsey RESET test conducted for model (2) are given below:

The fact that the CUSUM curve does not exceed the 5% tolerance range indicates that the model coefficients are stable for the entire study period.
A_4_3) Chow test
This test serves to determine whether the model parameters have structural shifts and discontinuities. The null hypothesis of the test is as follows: “The model parameters are structurally stable.”
Whether the devaluation factor that occurred twice in 2015 in the Azerbaijani economy had an effect on the output variable of model (2) - the volume of production in the agro-processing sector - was determined using the Chow test:
The Result of the Chow Test to Check the Stability of the Coefficients of Model (3) With Respect to the Effects of the Devaluations that Occurred in 2015

Taking all this into account, we conclude that the influence of selected factors on increasing the production volume of agro-processing products in Azerbaijan is very high. Proper assessment and measurement of these factors allows for the sustainable development of the sector. Collecting and analyzing accurate statistical indicators for each factor can help increase efficiency, optimize costs, and strengthen market position. In order to increase the production volume of agro-processing products, it is important to properly manage the main factors affecting it. Effective optimization of these factors creates conditions for both obtaining high yields in the agro-processing sector in the country and maximizing the use of existing resources. Ultimately, it allows for more accurate prediction of future production levels.

Recommendations
In order to revive the agro-processing sector in Azerbaijan, it is necessary and expedient to solve some problems of great importance for the country\\'s economy.
1. The formation and development of clusters in Azerbaijan is of great importance for increasing the country\\'s economic prestige and improving its position in the world market. We believe that in order to expand local agricultural production and processing in Azerbaijan, more efficiently use resource potential, increase competitiveness, and strengthen export potential, it is expedient to create regional and sectoral clusters such as "Grain", "Sugar", "Vegetable Oil", "Meat", "Milk", "Cotton", "Tobacco", "Fruit", "Silk", "Wine", etc. These clusters could be a great impetus for the development of grain growing, sugar production, cotton growing, vegetable oil production, tobacco growing, viticulture and winemaking. In such structures, the process of "production-processing-storage-sale" will be united under a single umbrella. Here, agro-processing enterprises play the role of a central actor in the above-mentioned clusters and can affect both production, logistics and consumption. These clusters that we propose can be organized both sectorally and geographically.
2. It would be appropriate and necessary to improve customs regulations in the agro-processing sector: - it is necessary to regulate and protect domestic producers who can supply the country\\'s domestic market with agro-processing products through customs. Protection of the domestic market through customs should be extended to almost all products of the agro-processing sector;
3. There is a group of enterprises operating in the agro-processing sector that have very little working capital and therefore have a low level of profitability. It is a well-known fact that the high-interest and short-term loans currently offered by the country\\'s banks exclude the solution of this problem through credit. Therefore, such enterprises are actually deprived of these opportunities, because often bank interest rates exceed the profitability level of the enterprise.
It is more expedient to solve this problem through the factoring service, which is an example of an effective credit system. Factoring service is very important for a wide range of medium and small businesses operating in the agro-processing sector and with very weak financial resources, and as a result of this service, financing for the growth of their production volume becomes easy and accessible.
In our opinion, it would be expedient for the state to create a factoring program to support the solution of such problems. There should be credit organizations established in the regions to provide factoring services, and this work should be entrusted to them. Also, any bank that has branches and operates in all regions can be entrusted with this work.
4. The research conducted in the study shows that investments in the agro-processing sector quickly pay for themselves. Therefore, we believe that the application of an innovation-investment model in the agro-processing sector is more efficient in order to make local products competitive. The restructuring of the food and light industry and the attraction of innovative investments, including foreign direct investment, in this area largely depend on a favorable investment climate. In order to attract foreign direct investment, the country\\'s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) is now the need of the hour.

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