doi.org/10.52340/eab.2025.17.04.03 

The principal supporters of the tripartite agreement on the Zangezur Corridor (TRIPP), as discussed in the article, include the United States, the Armenian and Azerbaijani administrations and the Pan-Turkic forces in Turkey, which seek to expand their influence in the Caspian Sea region, Central Asia, and even within projects linked to China’s “Belt and Road Initiative”. Their position rests on provisions of the agreement that stipulate: 1) Establishing transport links between the western regions of Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan via Armenia along the banks of the Araks River; 2) Construction of new transport connections between Nakhchivan and other regions of Azerbaijan. Against this backdrop, claims that TRIPP could serve as an alternative to the Georgia-EU western “corridor” for Caspian hydrocarbons remain ambiguous.
For example, in Forbes (July 18, 2025), Guney Yildiz, in an article titled “America’s Growing Influence on the Zangezur: How a US-led Corridor Could Cut European Energy Prices and Counter Russia,” notes:“This has serious implications for Europe’s energy security. According to the IEA’s 2025 World Energy Outlook, Europe will need 20 billion cubic meters more non-Russian gas by 2030. Normalized Armenian-Turkish borders could improve access to Caspian Sea reserves, potentially reducing import costs by 10-15 percent for companies like BP (Forbes, G. Yildiz, 2025).
This proposal conflicts with the EU-backed BTC oil pipeline and the “Southern Gas Corridor” projects, which are supported by the European Union, Georgia and Azerbaijan. This situation underscores the complex geopolitical dynamics in the region and the divergent interests of various actors in shaping future energy routes.
We align with those experts who challenge this interpretation and advance 4 key arguments: a) The TRIPP agreement pertains solely to the movement of citizens, vehicles and cargo, and does not involve the construction of a railway or the transportation of oil and gas; b) The so-called “Zangezur Corridor” (TRIPP) would traverse Armenian territory under US military control. Specifically, along the 43 km stretch of the Araks River, US forces would be positioned near the Russian Gyumri military base and the regional Russian border guards – one of 4 detachments (Погранотряд) stationed in Armenia, with this unit directly deployed in Zangezur, in the city of Meghri (TASS, 2024); c) The presence of Russian border guards and the Gyumri base within the “Zangezur Corridor” poses a risk to both the pipelines of European energy companies and the entire transport infrastructure; d) The corridor’s entry and exit points lie in Azerbaijan and NATO member Turkey, not in Armenia’s Syunik region (Zangezur). Thus, cargo flows would begin and end in Turkey and Azerbaijan, leaving Russian border guards with no operational role in this context.
Azerbaijan and Turkey reached an agreement on the Baku-Erzurum-Nakhchivan gas pipeline and railway projects in February 2020. In the memorandum signed at that time, President Ilham Aliyev and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed their mutual interest in constructing both a gas pipeline and railway linking Erzurum and Igdir, and Kars to Nakhchivan – an autonomous region separated from mainland Azerbaijan – via Georgia. The central issue under discussion was whether Turkey could contribute to strengthening the energy security of Nakhchivan autonomous region and support the construction of a railway, which faces challenges due to the Syunik (Zangezur) region in Armenia. The construction of these communications would provide the Nakhchivan autonomy with a secure supplementary gas supply and establish a railway connection with the rest of Azerbaijan. Georgia also stands to benefit from these projects. The increased volume of transit gas flowing through the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline would allow Georgia’s LEPL Gas and Oil Corporation to retain 5% of the gas free of chage and additional 5% at a preferential price as a transit fee (valid until 2027). Furthermore, the planned railway through Zangezur could eventually connect with the North-South corridor (Moscow-Bandar Abbas) via Iran\\'s Astara-Rasht-Qazvin railway, enhancing regional connectivity.

Keywords: Zangezur Corridor, Caspian Sea, Central Asia, Nakhchivan, Azerbaijan, Turkey, NATO, BTK, railway, gas pipeline.
JEL Codes: F15, F51, Q35, Q37, R41

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