doi.org/10.52340/eab.2025.17.01.01

journal N 1.2025

The article analyzes the trends and prospects of global economic development in the short-term and medium-term. The analysis covers not only the global economy as a whole but also the economies of individual countries, regions, and groups of countries. The dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators are examined, including GDP growth rates, inflation, unemployment, investment, public finances, and the balance of payments. Factors such as the cyclical nature of economic development, the macroeconomic situation, and the influence of geopolitical factors are taken into account. The article highlights the high uncertainty regarding future developments, with the possibility of both positive and negative scenarios for the global economy.

Keywords: Global economy, global trade, trends and prospects of development, global crisis, geopolitical conflicts, economic cycle, GDP growth, inflation, unemployment rate, investment, balance of payments, public finances, budget deficit, national debt.

JEL Codes: E01, E32, E44, F01, F43

Factors Determining the Trends and Prospects of Global Economic Development

Several fundamental factors will determine the development of the global economy in the short-term and medium-term. First, cyclical fluctuations in the economies of various countries, regions, and the global economy as a whole. The long period of relatively stable growth in most developed countries following the global economic crisis of 2007-2009 (with the exception of 2020, when shocks occurred due to the COVID-19 pandemic) potentially carries risks related to a shift in the phase of the economic cycle.
Noting the successes in the fight against inflation, the IMF highlights that "the risks of deterioration are increasing and currently dominate the forecasts." At the same time, fundamental problems remain, such as the high levels of government and corporate debt in many countries, and the relatively high interest rates following a prolonged period of loose monetary policy.
From the perspective of the potential for a global crisis, many factors remain, including changes in the economy and politics caused by long economic cycles, "bubbles" in financial and real estate markets, the quality of banks' credit portfolios, the level of management in the financial and corporate sectors, currency and geopolitical external shocks, etc.
Secondly, geopolitical tension, armed conflicts, sanctions wars, and the fragmentation of the global economy are seriously negatively impacting the economic development of many countries, regions, and the global economy as a whole. The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have led to significant economic losses in several countries, increased instability in international financial and commodity markets, and dealt another blow to logistics chains in the supply of goods and services, which had not yet fully recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic. Many world leaders have repeatedly highlighted the risks to the global economy arising from these conflicts.
Thirdly, there is a significant risk of the resurgence of trade wars between the U.S., China, and the EU. For instance, the economic program proposed by the winner of the U.S. presidential election, Donald Trump, involves "imposing tariffs of 10–20% on all imported goods, and up to 60% on those of Chinese origin." In this case, retaliatory measures from China, other countries, and state unions are highly likely, which would negatively affect global trade. The impact on national economies in the short-term perspective could also be negative.
Fourthly, there are serious internal economic problems in several of the world's largest countries. For example, the extremely high level of government debt in several developed countries or the worsening situation in China’s stock and housing markets. The problems in the banking sector of certain countries, which can lead to systemic banking crises, should also not be overlooked.
Fifthly, against the backdrop of political and economic fragmentation, changes are taking place in the global financial system. While these changes are currently more declarative in nature, real transformations may occur in the medium term. Among such developments are initiatives to introduce alternative forms and methods of settlements, reserve currencies, and international financial institutions. These efforts are being undertaken by individual countries both at the national level and within international organizations, such as BRICS.

Global economic growth has been generally weak and uneven

Amid such risks and opportunities, the development of the global economy has remained sluggish and unbalanced, although certain countries and even entire regions have demonstrated strong socio-economic performance.
Overall, global economic growth continues to slow down: from 3.6% in 2022 to 3.3% in 2023 and 3.2% in 2024 (with the 2024 figures and beyond based on IMF forecasts). In 2025, the IMF projects stable economic growth at 3.2%. However, growth forecasts for some low-income and developing countries have been significantly downgraded, in many cases due to escalating conflicts.
According to the European Commission's latest autumn forecast, global GDP is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2024 and by 3.3% in 2025–2026. The European Commission anticipates that this moderate but steady growth will be supported by the gradual easing of monetary policy.
In the group of advanced economies, the IMF estimates that economic growth rates declined from 2.9% in 2022 to 1.7% in 2023 and 1.8% in 2024. In 2025, growth is also expected to remain at 1.8%. However, economic growth rates vary significantly across developed countries. Unemployment in advanced economies is projected to reach 4.6% in 2024, which is significantly lower than in previous years: for example, it stood at 6.6% in 2020 and 5.6% in 2021. These unemployment figures support the overall assessment of economic growth in developed countries.
In the largest advanced economy—the United States, whose condition has a significant impact on the global economy—economic growth is expected to reach 2.8% in 2024 (compared to 2.9% in 2023). This is a strong figure, significantly exceeding the average growth rate of the U.S. economy between 2006 and 2015 (1.6%). In 2025, the IMF forecasts U.S. economic growth at 2.2%. At the same time, the economic program of U.S. President Donald Trump includes significant measures aimed at boosting economic growth. In addition to increasing tariffs on imports, the plan envisions extending the tax cuts introduced in 2017, reducing the corporate tax rate for manufacturers producing goods in the U.S. from 21% to 15%, eliminating taxes on tips and social benefits, and abolishing double taxation for U.S. citizens living abroad.
However, potential trade wars could have a negative impact on the U.S. economy, especially in the short term, as they may lead to a decline in exports to China and other countries that implement retaliatory measures. At the same time, the U.S. recognizes the importance of U.S.-China economic relations for both countries and for the global economy as a whole.
In 2024, according to the IMF forecast, economic growth in the Eurozone is expected to be 0.8%, slightly higher than the 2023 figure (0.4%) and in line with the average growth rate between 2006 and 2015. The modest growth rate is largely attributed to rising energy prices, trade wars, and sanctions. In this context, the ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are negatively impacting the economies of European countries, and their swift resolution could have a beneficial effect. In the largest European economy, Germany, a zero growth rate is expected in 2024 (after a 0.3% decline in 2023). The economies of the UK and France are forecast to grow by 1.1% in 2024, Italy by 0.7%, Spain by 2.9%, and the Netherlands by 0.6%. In 2024, the IMF anticipates a slight economic decline in Ireland, Austria, Finland, and Estonia.
In the Eurozone, the unemployment rate in 2024 is expected to be 6.5%, the lowest level in recent years.
The European Commission's latest autumn forecast highlights that the EU economy, after a prolonged period of stagnation, is transitioning to moderate growth. However, new risks to the sustainability of this growth may arise from plans by the new U.S. administration to impose new tariffs on all imports from the EU.
According to the European Commission, U.S. protectionist measures could also lead to problems for the U.S. economy itself. The Commission forecasts that economic growth in the EU will be 0.9% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025.
In Japan, GDP growth is expected to slow down to 0.3% in 2024 (compared to 1.7% in 2023).
Amid the conflicts in the Middle East, economic growth in Israel has significantly slowed down. While in 2021, the country’s economic growth reached 9.5%, and in 2022 it was 6.4%, in 2023 it slowed to 2%, and in 2024 it is expected to be just 0.7%.
In 2024, economic growth in developing countries and economies in transition is forecasted by the IMF to be 4.2%, which is similar to the 2023 figure (4.4%), but significantly lower than the average growth rate from 2006 to 2015 (5.6%). The IMF predicts economic growth in this group of countries to remain at 4.2% in 2025. Overall, the slowdown in economic growth in these countries is largely due to the consequences of armed conflicts, including those in Ukraine and the Middle East.
In developing countries in Asia, the economic growth rate is expected to be 5.3% in 2024, slightly lower than in 2023 (5.7%).
In China, economic growth is projected to be 4.8% in 2024, down from 5.2% in 2023. The IMF forecasts further slowing of economic growth in China to 4.5% in 2025 and to 3.3% by 2029. For comparison, the average growth rate between 2006 and 2015 was 9.6%.
Possible increases in tariffs on Chinese imports to the U.S. could have an additional negative impact on Chinese exports, a key source of economic growth in the country. The situation in the Chinese real estate market is also facing difficulties. However, the Chinese government is implementing large-scale measures to support the economy, which may help mitigate the impact of various negative factors.
Trade wars and the fragmentation of the global economy along political lines could have a serious impact on both China's economy and the global economy as a whole. The political situation surrounding Taiwan is also challenging, representing a potentially frozen regional global conflict, much like the potential conflict on the Korean Peninsula.
In India, economic growth is expected to reach 7% in 2024 (down from 8.2% in 2023). The IMF forecasts a slowdown in growth to 6.5% in 2025.
In European countries with emerging market economies, the GDP growth rate is expected to be 3.2% in 2024, which is roughly in line with the 2023 figure (3.3%). The IMF forecasts a decline in this rate to 2.2% in 2025. The geopolitical conflict around Ukraine is negatively affecting the economy of most of these countries, reducing export and import opportunities, harming investments, increasing migration flows, and negatively impacting government finances and currency stability. In Ukraine, industrial production dropped by 28.8% in 2022. However, active international support helped stabilize the situation, and the economy grew by 5.3% in 2023, with a projected GDP increase of 3% in 2024.
In Russia, the economy also contracted by 1.2% in 2022, but it grew by 3.6% in 2023 and 2024. Belarus experienced an economic decline of 4.7% in 2022, but saw a growth of 3.9% in 2023 and 3.6% in 2024. In 2024, slower economic growth is expected in Romania (to 1.9%), Turkey (to 3%), Albania (to 3.3%), and Montenegro (to 3.7%). On the other hand, an acceleration in economic growth is predicted for Hungary (to 1.5%), Moldova (to 2.6%), Poland (to 3%), and Serbia (to 3.9%).
In the group of countries in the Middle East and Central Asia, economic growth in 2024 is expected to be 2.4%, slightly exceeding the 2023 figure (2.1%), but still significantly below the average rate for 2006-2015 (4.2%). The socio-economic situation in these countries is heavily influenced by the consequences of the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, as traditional logistics chains are disrupted, and capital outflows occur. However, some countries demonstrate very strong development indicators, which can be attributed to pragmatic foreign economic policies and the preservation of internal political and macroeconomic stability. The flow of remittances from migrants also plays a role.
The highest GDP growth rates in 2024 in this group of countries, according to the IMF, are forecasted for Georgia (7.6%), Tajikistan (6.8%), Kyrgyzstan (6.5%), Armenia (6%), Uzbekistan (5.6%), the UAE (4%), Iran (3.7%), and Kazakhstan (3.5%). At the same time, the negative consequences of the Middle Eastern crisis have led to a deterioration in macroeconomic indicators for the oil-producing countries in the region. For example, Saudi Arabia's economy, which contracted by 0.7% in 2023, is expected to grow by only 1.5% in 2024. In Kuwait, after a 3.6% decline in 2023, the economy is projected to shrink by another 2.7% in 2024. Syria saw a catastrophic economic decline of 18.3% in 2023, and in 2024, the IMF predicted a further contraction of 20.3%. In Yemen, following a 2% decrease in 2023, the economy is expected to contract by 1% in 2024.
In the case of further escalation of conflicts in the Middle East and around Ukraine, it can be predicted that the socio-economic situation in many countries in this group may worsen.
However, Georgia has demonstrated the highest economic growth rates in this group of countries. Strong macroeconomic performance is also supported by good results in the banking sector. According to the financial report submitted to the National Bank of Georgia (NBG) by 17 commercial banks, the total assets of Georgian commercial banks reached 90.4 billion GEL. As of October 2024, the assets of Georgian banks increased by 16.2 billion GEL, or 21.7%, compared to the same period last year. The asset growth was driven by an increase in bank loans, which reached 59.5 billion GEL (a 21.4% annual growth). The deposit portfolio grew by 17.5% year-on-year and amounted to 60 billion GEL.
Regarding the banking sector's equity capital, it stands at 13.4 billion GEL, which is 19.4% higher than the previous year. Additionally, the net profit of Georgian banks for 2024 increased to 3.096 billion GEL, which is 380 million GEL, or 14%, more than in 2023.
The economic growth rates have slowed down in Latin American countries as well. In 2024, GDP growth is expected to be 2.1% (compared to 4.2% in 2022 and 2.2% in 2023).
In sub-Saharan African countries, GDP growth rates in 2023-2024 are projected to reach 3.6%.
Thus, in most countries around the world, moderate economic growth is observed. However, in countries directly involved in geopolitical conflicts, especially developing or emerging market economies, there are noticeable negative effects from these conflicts.

Slowing Inflation Rates

Moderate economic growth has been accompanied by a significant slowdown in inflation rates across most countries. According to the IMF, "In the global battle against inflation, victory has generally been achieved, despite persistent price pressures in some countries. Currently, we forecast that overall inflation, which peaked at 9.4% year-on-year in Q3 2022, will decrease to 3.5% by the end of the next year, slightly below the average level observed over the two decades before the pandemic. In most countries, inflation is now close to the target levels set by central banks, which opens the path for a loosening of monetary policy by major central banks." The high inflation observed in recent years was largely driven by the disruption of supply chains during the pandemic, increased demand post-pandemic, the consequences of geopolitical crises, and rising prices of energy and raw materials. The success in curbing inflation, coupled with economic growth in most countries, creates opportunities for further progressive development of the global economy. However, there are significant macroeconomic and geopolitical risks that could materialize suddenly, leading to a considerable deterioration in economic conditions.
In September 2024, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) made its forecast regarding the economic development of several countries and regions. In its latest report, the EBRD revised its growth expectations downward for the regions where it invests. The bank now projects a growth rate of 2.8% for 2024, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than its previous forecast made in May 2024.
The EBRD cites several reasons for this downward revision of the economic growth outlook. Economic activity in Central Asia was weaker than expected, with mining activities in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan facing challenges. Meanwhile, economies in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean (SEMED) region are feeling the effects of severe droughts and the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon.
The growth forecast for Ukraine remains unchanged at 3% for 2024 but has been revised upward by 1.3 percentage points to 4.7% for 2025 due to the damage caused to its energy infrastructure during the armed conflict, which will impact production.
On the other hand, the EBRD's new regional forecast highlights a decrease in regional inflation. Inflation has dropped from its peak of 17.5% in October 2022 to 5.8% by July 2024. However, inflation remains 1.6 percentage points higher than the pre-pandemic average. As inflation decreases, real wages have resumed rapid growth, almost reaching pre-pandemic levels. This has led to increased household consumption.
The new EBRD report examines not only the overall prices of oil and gas but also the specific costs for individual countries. For example, Armenia continues to pay the same low price for natural gas as it did in 2021 due to its existing contract. In contrast, Ukraine, Slovenia, Croatia, and North Macedonia pay significantly more. The composition of energy imports has shifted noticeably from Russian pipeline gas to alternatives such as Norwegian gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the U.S. and Norway, facilitated by new and expanded terminals in Croatia, Greece, Jordan, and Lithuania. Additionally, EBRD countries in the EU and the Western Balkans have reduced their dependence on Russian oil in recent years, from approximately 60% to 30%. Recent changes in global trade patterns show that China's role as a trading partner in the EBRD regions remains strong. In countries like Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan, the share of imports from China has grown from 14% in 2021 to 25% in 2023, largely replacing Russian imports. Trade volumes in these three countries have surged, with exports increasing by 37% and imports by 64%.
Returning to the IMF forecasts, it can be noted that in the group of developed countries, inflation has slowed from 7.3% in 2022 to 4.6% in 2023, and is projected to reach 2.6% in 2024. However, the 2024 figure is still higher than the average for 2006-2015 (1.7%). The IMF expects inflation to continue decelerating in developed countries, reaching 2% in 2025 and further afterward.
In the U.S., inflation decreased from 8% in 2022 to 4.1% in 2023 and is expected to reach 3% in 2024. Despite the slowdown, rising prices remain one of the most pressing and debated issues in the U.S., particularly in the context of the presidential election campaign. Among the measures to combat inflation, the new U.S. administration may increase oil and gas production, which would lower energy prices, and reduce interest rates, potentially helping to lower the cost of goods.
In Japan, which traditionally experienced low inflation and even deflation, the pace of price increases has accelerated in recent years: reaching 2.5% in 2022 and 3.3% in 2023. However, inflation is expected to slow to 2.2% in 2024.
In the United Kingdom, prices increased by 9.1% in 2022, by 7.3% in 2023, and the growth of prices is expected to decelerate to 2.6% in 2024.
In the Eurozone, the price increase accelerated to 8.4% in 2022, while in 2023, it was 5.4%. However, in 2024, inflation is expected to be contained at 2.4%.
For 2024, inflation in countries in this group is not expected to be significant. According to IMF forecasts, it will remain at a moderate level in the subsequent years as well.
In developing countries in Asia, there has been no noticeable inflation surge in recent years. In 2022, the inflation rate was 3.9%, in 2023 it dropped to 2.4%, and in 2024, it is projected to be 2.1%. The IMF does not forecast a significant increase in prices for this group of countries in the coming years. Low inflation in most of these countries is accompanied by a slowdown in economic growth, indicating a shift in the economic growth model. This transition is moving away from very high growth rates, rapid monetary expansion, and booming financial and real estate markets, towards more mature growth models typical of developed countries. For instance, in 2024, inflation in China is expected to be only 0.4%, in India 4.4%, in Indonesia 2.5%, and in Thailand 0.5%. However, in some countries of the region, very high inflation is observed. For example, in Laos and Myanmar, inflation in 2024 will rise by 22%. As always, there are exceptions to the rule.
In the group of European countries with developing and emerging market economies, inflation reached 17.1% in 2023 and is projected to remain high at 16.9% in 2024. Although inflation is slowing down in most of these countries, similar to global trends, it will still remain elevated in certain regions. For instance, in Turkey, inflation is expected to reach 60.9%, in Russia 7.9%, Belarus 6%, Ukraine 5.8%, Romania 5.3%, and Moldova 5%. The geopolitical conflict surrounding Ukraine, with its impact on government finances, rising energy prices, and supply chain disruptions, is negatively affecting the economy and price stability in these countries.
In the Middle East and Central Asia, inflation has been above 10% since 2020, peaking at 13.4% in 2022, reaching 15.6% in 2023, and projected to be 14.6% in 2024. The unfavorable consequences of the pandemic and geopolitical conflicts are contributing to these high inflation rates. In 2024, price growth is expected to reach 200% in Sudan, 33.3% in Egypt, 31.7% in Iran, 23.4% in Pakistan, 16.3% in Yemen, 10% in Uzbekistan, and 8.6% in Kazakhstan.
However, several countries in this group that are demonstrating good economic growth rates have managed to maintain price stability. For example, inflation in Georgia is expected to be only 1.1% in 2024, in Armenia 0.2%, and in Azerbaijan 2.1%. Nevertheless, potential external shocks could have a significant negative impact on countries with stable monetary systems.
In the group of Latin American countries, inflation has remained high in recent years. In 2022, it reached 14.2%, in 2023 it was 14.8%, and it is projected to rise further to 16.8% in 2024.
Similarly, inflation remains elevated in Sub-Saharan African countries. In 2022, inflation was 15.2%, and in 2023 it increased to 17.6%.
In 2024, inflation in Sub-Saharan African countries is expected to reach 18.1%. Thus, despite the global trend of inflation slowing down, in certain regions and countries, inflation remains high, largely due to the negative impact of geopolitical conflicts.

Global Trade Hit-Blown by Negative Factors

Global trade has also been significantly impacted by negative factors such as the pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, and trade and sanction wars. In 2020, during the pandemic, global trade volume dropped by 8.5%. While trade almost fully recovered in 2021, growing by 10.8%, growth slowed to 5.7% in 2022 and further dropped to just 0.8% in 2023. The IMF forecasts global trade growth of 3.1% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025. Over a 10-year period (2016-2025), the growth rate will average just 2.7%, compared to 4.1% over the previous decade (2006-2015). An escalation of trade and sanction wars could further degrade global trade. In 2023, world prices for key commodities fell significantly. Fuels dropped by 16.2%, food prices decreased by 6.5%, and agricultural raw materials declined by 15.6%. The IMF forecasts slight price increases in 2024 for industrial goods (1.1%), fuel (0.9%), and agricultural raw materials (3.8%), but food prices are expected to continue falling (5.2%). This pricing environment is unfavorable for fuel and raw material-exporting countries.
Regarding the balance of payments in countries and regions, developed countries managed to slightly improve their balance of payments in 2023. In 2022, the balance was negative (a deficit of 0.4% of GDP), but in 2023, it turned positive (0.2% of GDP), and the forecast for 2024 is an improvement to 0.4% of GDP. However, the situation is uneven across developed countries. In 2024, the Eurozone’s balance of payments will be positive at 2.6% of GDP, with Germany at 6.6%, Spain at 3.4%, France at 0.1%, and Italy at 1.1%. In contrast, the UK is expected to have a deficit of 2.8%, and the US a deficit of 3.3%. The issue of a large trade deficit in the US remains one of the most pressing, with the new administration planning to sharply raise tariffs on imports to address it.
In 2024, developing countries in Asia are expected to maintain a positive balance of trade at 0.8% of GDP, as will the Middle Eastern and Central Asian countries at 1.7% of GDP. However, Latin American countries will continue to experience a trade deficit of 0.9% of GDP, as will European countries with emerging market economies (0.3% of GDP) and African countries (3.2% of GDP).

High Level of Public Debt Triggering Threats to Economic Development

The high level of public debt remains a significant threat to economic development. Leading economists have raised concerns about the sustainability of state finances, noting the risks associated with growing public debt. However, recent data from the IMF show some positive developments in this area.
For instance, by the end of 2024, developed countries are expected to have a positive government budget balance of 0.4% of GDP, which is an improvement over 2023 (0.2% of GDP) and especially over 2022 (a deficit of 0.2% of GDP). On average, from 2006 to 2015, developed countries experienced a budget deficit of 0.2% of GDP. Nevertheless, the situation across developed countries varies significantly.
The level of public debt in developed countries has decreased substantially compared to the pandemic period, when large-scale measures were implemented to support the economy and social services. In 2020, the debt reached 121.9% of GDP, but by 2021 it decreased to 115.4%, in 2022 to 109.9%, and in 2023 to 108.7%. The IMF forecasts a slight increase in this indicator to 109.4% of GDP in 2024, largely due to the negative consequences of global conflicts, which have led to increased government spending.
In the United States, the budget deficit in 2024 is expected to reach 3.3% of GDP, similar to the figure in 2023 (which was also the average deficit from 2006 to 2015). In 2021, the deficit was 3.7% of GDP, and in 2022, it was 3.9%. The high and persistent budget deficit is contributing to the growth of the U.S. national debt. The IMF estimates that the U.S. public debt in 2024 will reach 121% of GDP
which, while significantly lower than during the COVID-19 pandemic, remains a large and concerning figure for the future of the U.S. economy and the global economy at large. The new administration plans to implement significant tax cuts but also aims to reduce government spending, for example, by cutting expenses on the maintenance of the state apparatus.
In the UK, the budget deficit in 2024 is expected to be 2.9% of GDP, and in Canada, it will be 1% of GDP. Meanwhile, other leading developed countries are expected to report budget surpluses in 2024. For example, Germany is expected to have a budget surplus of 6.6% of GDP, France 0.3%, Italy 1.4%, Spain 4.3%, and Japan 3.7%.
While many developed countries have made progress in state finances, public debt remains at high levels. Although the debt has decreased in most countries compared to the pandemic period, the progress in reducing it has slowed in recent years. This is clearly influenced by the negative impact of global conflicts on these countries' finances. For instance, in 2024, Japan's public debt will reach 251.2% of GDP, Singapore's 175.2% of GDP, Greece's 159% of GDP, Italy's 136.9% of GDP, France's 113.8% of GDP, Canada's 106.1% of GDP, Belgium's 105% of GDP, Spain's 102.3% of GDP, and the UK's 101.8% of GDP.
In 2024, the group of developing Asian countries is expected to report a budget surplus of 0.9% of GDP. However, this group is witnessing significant growth in public debt. In 2022, the debt was 73.6% of GDP, in 2023 it increased to 78.7%, and in 2024, it is expected to reach 82.8% of GDP. The rise in public debt is largely driven by large-scale economic support measures in response to the growing influence of negative external factors and increasing macroeconomic challenges.
In European countries with emerging economies, the budget deficit in 2024 is projected to remain at 0.2% of GDP, as it was in 2023. This group of countries is experiencing moderate growth in public debt, partly due to the negative impacts of geopolitical conflicts. In 2022, public debt was 32.6% of GDP, rising to 34.6% in 2023, and expected to reach 35.1% in 2024. Most countries in this group are experiencing a rise in public debt. For example, by 2024, according to the IMF, public debt in Ukraine is expected to reach 95.6% of GDP, in Hungary 73.5%, in Montenegro 62.2%, in Poland 56.5%, and in Romania 55.7%.
In the Middle Eastern and Central Asian countries, a budget surplus of 1.7% of GDP is forecasted for 2024. Despite the impact of the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, this group of countries has significantly reduced their public debt compared to the COVID-19 pandemic period and has managed to prevent it from rising in recent years. In 2024, the public debt level in this group of countries is expected to be 45.4% of GDP. The absolute majority of countries in the Middle East and Central Asia have relatively low levels of public debt, except for Sudan (344% of GDP), Bahrain (126.7% of GDP), Jordan (91.7% of GDP), Egypt (90.9% of GDP), Yemen (85% of GDP), and Tunisia (83.7% of GDP). The IMF predicts a decrease in public debt in 2024 for Algeria, Azerbaijan, Egypt, Georgia, Jordan, Kyrgyzstan, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan.
In Latin American countries, a traditional budget deficit of 1% of GDP and a relatively high level of public debt (69.4% of GDP) are expected to persist in 2024.
In Sub-Saharan African countries, the budget deficit in 2024 is projected to reach 2.7% of GDP, and the level of public debt is expected to be 59.7% of GDP.

Upcoming Months Gearing Time for Opportunities and Risks

In general, the global economic situation is developing ambiguously. As noted in the IMF report, "in the short-term, risks threatening financial stability remain limited, but increased economic and geopolitical uncertainty raises the probability of negative shocks that could expose vulnerabilities." In the near future, both positive and negative factors related to geopolitical conflicts may unfold.
There is a possibility of either the cessation of armed conflicts, the easing of sanctions regimes, or a move away from dangerous geopolitical confrontation (such possibilities are linked to the public intentions declared by the leadership of some major countries, such as the new US administration). However, there is also the potential for heightened geopolitical tension and the escalation of armed conflicts if no consensus is reached among all parties involved.
In terms of risks, there are concerns about the possibility of new large-scale trade wars, restrictions on the movement of capital, goods, and services, and the growing fragmentation of the global economy along political lines. The coming months are expected to be a time when significant new opportunities and considerable risks may materialize in both the global economy and politics.

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